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The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000.

117

Swarm Economy

Swarm Economy

Bitcoin’s value is at an all-time high again. Following the hype peak and crash in 2011, many seemed to have thought it was just another dotcom fluke. But bitcoin was much more than that, and it has returned with a vengeance – its market cap is now twice what it was in the 2011 peak, and it is nowhere near its potential, which is four orders of magnitude above today’s value.

In this, a lot of people are confused at the fact that bitcoin has climbed 200% since the start of this year alone, and wonder what to make of it. It is currently at $41.50 and climbing fast, and I see a lot of people just looking at the numbers and guessing from charts how things will pan out.

I am seeing guesses of $50, $100, $150, even $1,000. These numbers seem pulled out of thin air from just looking at the charts – nobody seems to have done due diligence from the other direction, from the most fundamental observation of all:

Bitcoin is a transactional currency. As such, it is competing for market share on the transactional currency market.

Talking about bitcoin value is not about happily watching numbers go up and down while having popcorn. This is about identifying a global market, looking at its size and estimating a target market share based on the strengths and weaknesses of the competing product or service under analysis.

When you know the size of the target market, and have an estimate for your projected market share, you can estimate the value of your product or service as a percentage of the value of the total market. I haven’t seen anybody do that for bitcoin.

The total size of the transactional currency market is hard to estimate, but has been pegged at about $60 trillion (the amount of money in circulation worldwide). Seeing how this number is roughly on par with the world’s GDP, it is a reasonable enough number to be in the right ballpark. Based on my four earlier estimates (one, two, three, four), I think it is reasonable that bitcoin captures a 1% to 10% market share of this market.

The low end of 1% would be if it captures international and internet trade. The 10% would be if bitcoin also manages to capture some brick-and-mortar retail trade, which we are already seeing strong signs that it might – operations provide a 3% to 5% extra profit margin on sales when you can cut out the credit card processors, so the incentive to switch is immense: those 3% to 5% cost savings translate to 50% to 100% increased profits, as margins are typically very slim in retail.

Furthermore, some people will undoubtedly invest in bitcoin and keep their portion of bitcoin away from the transactional pool, like all people tend to hoard money if they are able. This decreases the amount of bitcoin that must fulfill the market share, further driving up value for each individual bitcoin. As a rough estimate, let’s assume that only one in four bitcoins is actually used in transactions, and the rest are in some kind of savings or investment plans.

This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low market cap and $1,000,000 at the high market cap.

In the light of this, present-day projections of $100 that present themselves as “daring and optimistic” actually come across as rather shortsighted and almost dealing with peanuts.

So is the projected market share realistic? Bitcoin certainly has hurdles to overcome – scalability and usability being two of them – but it has done remarkably well in maturing in the two years since I started looking at it. My prediction of a mainstream breakthrough around the year 2019 remains, and it still depends on getting mainstream usability; a target market cap may be reached about a decade after that happens, as a technology typically takes ten years from mainstream breakthrough to maturity.

Now, there are definitely uncertainties in this projection and its assumptions – but it does indicate what kind of ballpark we are talking about.

DISCLOSURE
The author has a significant investment in bitcoin. Specifically, he went all-in two years ago after having run these very numbers.
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About The Author: Rick Falkvinge

Rick is the founder of the first Pirate Party and is a political evangelist, traveling around Europe and the world to talk and write about ideas of a sensible information policy. He has a tech entrepreneur background and loves whisky.

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117

  1. 1
    Jim Z.

    I agree with your numbers but I think mainstream breakthrough will come earlier than 2019. Some enterprising souls in India, Europe, Mexico or any other location with multiple and varied payment networks will figure out how to string some, many or all of them together with Bitcoin (because that’s what people do) and it will propel our favorite protocol up the ladder even more quickly.

    • 1.1

      We’ll see soon enough. With any new disruptive technology, it has typically taken ten years from proof-of-concept to mainstream usability. This was the case with online video, with blogs, and with another example I usually cite but can’t recall right now.

      I would expect bitcoin to follow this pattern, especially given its decentralized, bottom-up nature.

      Cheers,
      Rick

      • 1.1.1
        Justus Ranvier

        If Bitcoin survives, I would expect its adoption cycle to be accelerated because in addition to its own merits it’s coming online in an environment where national currencies are looking less attractive by the day, and nobody wants to be the bagholder when government-issued money dies.

        You don’t lose out on very much by being the last person to buy a flat screen TV, but the last person to hold dollars loses everything.

        • happywarrior

          Ben Bernankey… he’ll have to start washing car windows at intersections.

        • hue

          Gov-issued money doesn’t die, it’d be saved no matter what, for economy’s sake.

        • harveyed

          hue: But it won’t have any value if people don’t want it. You could store it as long as you want, but if people don’t see any value in it, then it is… just as stupid as hoarding crap you won’t ever use and no one else wants either.

        • Azrael

          The flaw in that logic – or at least in the idea that it will happen any time soon, is that we already have a measure of the rate at which ordinary money loses value. In fact, most advanced nations hire top economists to calculate that precise rate of decline, and it’s one of the VERY few things that economists have been able to not only measure accurately, but make future forecasts about with tremendous accuracy (by contrast, the consensus amongst most leading economists from both the private and academic sectors is that all other forms of economic forecasting are ‘experiments’ or ‘works in progress’ at best, and that even a great economist still can’t accurately predict future economic growth.

          But this one thing that economists measure the hell out of, and the one thing they have been consistently able to predict for decades now – the rate at which cash money loses its value – has a name. It’s called inflation.

          And at present, EVERY advanced economy (in which I include smaller but ultra-successful economies like Australia, as well as huge but struggling monoliths like the US), has incredibly low inflation. The Japanese currency is actually GAINING purchasing power, which actually causes a lot of trouble, as it means business leaders can make ‘free’ money by sitting on their wealth instead of making things and employing people,. The US and Europe are actually deliberately trying to devalue their own currencies to prevent the same thing from happening there.

          What’s more, the value of cash money has some seriously powerful vested interests behind it. Just like governments are trying to devalue cash money now to encourage business leaders to invest instead of sitting on their cash, every time the inflation rate gets even moderately high, businesses pressure governments into manipulating the supply of currency via both their nation’s central bank AND the World Bank, to push the value of cash back up to a level where the savings of the ‘old money’ rich (the guys that never work and never employ anyone, but sit on inherited wealth and family-appointed board positions, and who therefore have not only a huge ability to buy politicians through donations and campaign sponsorship, but also a vested interest in ensuring that cash doesn’t lose value faster than their bank accounts and passive share/property portfolios can gain value).

          Bitcoin simply doesn’t have those kind of vested (or should I say ‘corrupt’) interests backing it.

          Your calculations, and in particular the idea that the value of cash will plummet compared to online currencies, would be entirely correct if we really did live in a free market world. But in the real world, even those nations that proclaim themselves as free market are heavily regulated – it just happens to be regulation by the corporate sector instead of the government. And short of some form of peoples’ revolution (which would somehow have to be the first such revolution to avoid BOTH the western pitfall of becoming a meaningless and futile hippy gathering, and the eastern pitfall of becoming an authoritarian state even worse than the shit it replaced), the corporate rulers are never going to let the value of cash plummet compared to online currency.

          In fact, I can only see one circumstance in which it might happen (as I don’t see the formation of a genuinely free market as a plausible possibility). And that’s if the US, Europe, China and Australia all went crazy and elected a series of Robert Mugabe clones to power. THAT guy knows how to crash the value of a cash currency:-)

        • Azrael

          Oh, and a quick edit/addition to my LOOOONNGGG post below where I explain at length why cash money won’t crash (or at least won’t ‘stay’ crashed) in any advanced economy, any time soon:

          Remember that economic troubles are not positively linked to currency depreciation. When cash loses value, it’s good for the nation’s economy (except for retirees and the ‘old money’ rich that neither work nor employ anyone, but sit on passive investments handed down over generations) – that’s because the cost of running export businesses become comparatively cheaper on the world market even if the local cost of labour, parts, R+D etc all remain constant.

          Similarly, when the value of cash goes up, it is utterly disastrous for an economy – it’s what’s been sinking the Japanese economy for decades, and the US came very very close to falling into the same hole. If your nation’s cash starts consistently gaining value, it (a) stops people making things or employing people because they can make safe money by just sitting on their savings, and (b) your export industries get screwed because even if all your local costs remain stable their cost on the ‘world market’ is going up – in the meantime your imports get cheaper for the inverse reason and so your country starts piling up debt like crazy.

          Don’t take the current northern hemisphere economic crisis (I say northern hemisphere, rather than Global Financial Crisis, because a lot of the southern economies like Australia and about half of South America are kicking ass) as some indication that currencies are going to drop along with the economy.

  2. 2

    You know about the OIX, right ?

    At least this one it predicted.

  3. 4
    Michael

    Finally, someone doing the same math I’ve been doing. The only reason to trade on these little bumps is to increase your holdings for the long term.

  4. 5
    J

    Great article, been following your series on bitcoins for a while now, speaking as a curious/potential investor (no big money, just like 3-5k SEK, sadly I don’t have more money I can “afford” to lose). Been waiting for the best time to invest (and it’s obvious now that the best time to invest this year was 1-2 months ago :)

    Kind of curious what you think (I won’t consider this as actual finacial advice, so no worries there!), if I’ve already decided to invest, do you think the best time to do it is right away, or wait for bitcoins to fluctuate down a bit before investing or do you think it’s only going to go up in value from now on?

    Last time I was seriously considering actually transfering money to my bitcoin adress it was at about 23USD, and now I’m kind of regretting not investing back then. Just worrying I’ll think the same thing in a few months time when bitcoins are up to like 70USD+ :)

    • 5.1

      Kind of curious what you think (I won’t consider this as actual finacial advice, so no worries there!), if I’ve already decided to invest, do you think the best time to do it is right away, or wait for bitcoins to fluctuate down a bit before investing or do you think it’s only going to go up in value from now on?

      What I’ve learned is that every time I try to be smart, I lose a fuckton of money. (I could have had a lot more on my hands today if I had just held on to my original all-in through all the ups and downs, but I didn’t, I tried to catch the swings.)

      So I won’t give advice, instead I’ll word it like this – if I were to do the same thing today, and I had already decided to invest, I would decide it was for the long haul (five years or more), I would not worry about if the point of entry was $20 or $40, and I would not worry about short-term swings, but look at trends from year to year.

      Right now, for example, I think that bitcoin value is growing much too fast to be sustainable. I don’t have any hard data to back that up, it’s just a gut feeling. Nevertheless, I expect a correction in the near term – maybe to $30 or $22 or so if the correction is particularly strong. This doesn’t need to happen, I am just mentally prepared for it.

      Cheers,
      Rick

      • 5.1.1
        Btchoarder

        I don’t have a lot invested but I did try to catch the swings early on. It was a huge mistake. Since that lesson I have just stayed in and I will stay in come hell or high water until I am either a millionaire or it dies. I have been in since btc was around $4.80 and watching my spare change turn into literally thousands of dollars has been quite enthralling. I’m prepared to lose every penny, I understand that this does t happen often, that it could fail and I won’t be upset if it does – but I’m equally prepared to see this thing through to 1m per coin. I believe it to be entirely possible.

  5. 6
    Anon

    When you know the size of the target market, and have an estimate for your projected market share, you can estimate the value of your product or service as a percentage of the value of the total market. I haven’t seen anybody do that for bitcoin.

    The problem is that the system described has precisely nothing to do with the practicalities of Bitcoin. Admitting to begin with that the price of anything – even Bitcoin, WoW gold, Diablo 3 gold and other game currencies – is a result of the interplay of their respective supply and demand, let’s look into things.

    On the dollar supply side, the basis is currently tiny. MtGox reports something to the tune of 1mn USD being brought to the market each day. If we don’t bother to notice that likely a large section of that is speculative rather than bona fide USD added to the marketi and if we count MtGox at about 50% of the total exchange market (which may be overstating it but more likely is understating it) we’re looking at something to the tune of half a billion dollars yearly.

    During that same year gambling in the US alone will have involved something to the tune of 100 billion, or two hundred fold. The total of all McDonalds meals served in the US will have come to about 25 billion, or fifty fold. The Walt Disney Company made about 40 bn from operating its parks and theatres, so that’s about 80 fold. And to top everything off, we don’t even know what the notional size of the derivatives market is even, but people close to the virtuality guess it must be something over 1`000 trillion (that’s two million fold).

    So, leaving MPEx out of this equation entirely, if just one percent of discretionary spending is redirected from hamburgers, disneyworlds and one arm bandits to Bitcoin, that’s a 3.3x increase of total supply side (330%). If this shift doesn’t happen during the course of a year, but during the course of two weeks the momentary supply side spike is more like 85x (8`500%). If we count MPEx into the story we’re already discussing 1000x’s (ie 100`000%) even if instead of percents we’re looking more at tenths and hundredths thereof.
    Bitcoin prices, Bitcoin inflexibility.

    Really, it’s been done to death.

  6. 7
    Jonas

    A big problem with bitcoins for retail is how much space it would take to store the blockchain, what are your thoughts on this?

    “I don’t think it’s either practical nor feasible nor even desirable to use Bitcoin in the day to day dabble of pizzas, phone credits, hairspray and sneakers. People try to, because of the misguided belief that Bitcoin value is somehow related to or deriving from its crossection in the retail market. This happens to be completely untrue : you can’t buy any pizza with SDRs, and yet that doesn’t somehow make SDRs worthless. The belief itself may be a case of “everything appears a nail to the man holding a hammer”, in the sense that people who have never interracted with any other aspect of economy besides the supermarket counter may genuinely imagine that’s what economy is. Still, that makes no difference.

    On a third hand, from a technical perspective Bitcoin is neither designed to nor capable to support retail level transactions. The credit card processors (Visa, Mastercard, AmEx etc) cleared something to the tune of one billion transactions in 2010. At an average size of a very conservative 600 bytes per transaction that would have added 600 Gb to the blockchain. At roughly 1% of that for its entire 4 year history Bitcoin is already too heavy, causing serious problems for people trying to start a new client. Moreover the year of 2010 contained about 50k blocks, which at most may carry 1 Mb each : even if each block was full Bitcoin could have at most carried 10% of that sort of volume.” from: http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/bitcoin-prices-bitcoin-inflexibility/

    • 7.1
      jam

      The electrum bitcoin client has already solved this issue.

    • 7.2

      A big problem with bitcoins for retail is how much space it would take to store the blockchain, what are your thoughts on this?

      I agree that this is a real problem that the bitcoin community will have to solve, and I group it under “scalability”.

      To some extent, they have Moore’s Law working in their favor.

      • 7.2.1
        herzmeister

        Also projects like Ripple might alleviate some of these problems. Not all money transfers have to be carved in to the blockchain.

        The idea of Ripple has been around since 2004 as a decentralized barter network and peer-to-peer community credit/banking system based on a web of trust.

        So far, no serious implementations existed, only prototypes and proofs of concepts, like villages.cc or ripplepay.com

        Because it’s also very usable to decentralize Bitcoin exchanges and all currency trading for that matter, it’s being implemented seriously now in a properly distributed manner by some apt developers of Bitcoin fame.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_monetary_system
        https://ripple.com/

      • 7.2.2
        harveyed

        Could not “attacks” on Bitcoin be made by 2 people transferring money back and forth and thus growing the blockchain and increasing the computational load required for everyone? Or could the community just punish people for having too many simultaneous transactions by agreeing to stall the calculation of the transfer from each address if those deviate too much from some mean?

        • Tom

          That should be mitigated by processing fees. Eventually an attacker will run out of money, or if they don’t include fees the miners are less likely to include their transactions in the blockchain.

    • 7.3

      The Rise Of Bitcoin What Is It And Is It Worth It? | Bitter Bananas

      Bitcoin is starting to get very popular these days, but still the majority of people know nothing about it. It is considered as one of the best investments you could have made, because of its’ massive price jump over the last year.

      So what is Bitcoin?

      This article best describes the overivew of Bitcoin, which is largest online used digital currency in online world.
      http://bitterbananas.com/the-rise-of-bitcoin-what-is-it-and-is-it-worth-it/

  7. 8
    Daniel

    @Jonas – The blockchain limits is why I expect Bitcoin to be used for settlements between different trading communities, and for large purchases, like buying a house. The communities can set up transaction chains of their own, which will be smaller, and then will aggregate these transactions into a single large one heading across the main Bitcoin network, plus a separate list of recipients handed off to other trading communities.

    You as an individual only need to track your local community transaction history, instead of the whole world’s.

    • 8.1
      Jonas

      That makes a lot of sense in theory, but is it technically possible without imposing a lot of security problems (race conditions from relying on different “hubs/subnetworks”)? Would the bitcoin protocol have to expanded upons or is this “problem” already accounted for and solved?

  8. 9

    I always like to compare Bitcoin to the internet itself. A decentralized network on wich to trade goods and services. Bitcoin will do to currency as the Internet has done to commerce. The web was adopted and embraced by the masses between 1995 and 2000, but it was being used as far back as the late 80’s on a consumer level. Bitcoin today is at about where the Internet was in 1993… the next 7 years were nothing short of amazing (and quite disruptive)! Who will be the first Bitcoin millionaires, if not Billionaires minted on this new open source currency platform?

    • 9.1
      Toni

      “Bitcoin will do to currency as the Internet has done to commerce.”

      I must disagree. What the internet did for commerce has been to reduce profit margins (i.e.; Amazon is just WalMart on the ‘net) while keeping transaction costs pretty much the same as in physical retail operations.

      What bitcoin does is keep profit margins the same, while greatly reducing – and in several cases, completely eliminating – transaction costs.

      Likewise, just considering currency by itself, bitcoin is even more remarkable: try sending a dollar to some charity that helps to feed people who are hungry. How much value is received by those people in need? A nickel?

      Send 0.025 BTC (about a dollar) to someone with a semi-smart phone in some political cesspool of a country in West Africa, and how much do they get? All of it, unless you want to speed up the transmission by including a 0.0001 fee.

      I find that a different comparison for bitcoin is more useful. For me, anyway. I compare it to Skype.

      • 9.1.1

        I see your point, maybe it’s not an exact analogy, but I was more referring to the impact I think Bitcoin could have on society. As large if not larger than the internet itself.

        • Toni

          “As large if not larger than the internet itself.”

          We are in total agreement on that…

      • 9.1.2
        harveyed

        I agree with you, and I guess we can expect bnacks and other entralized inancial institutions to go to just about any length concievable to try and stop this.. by all the dirty methods we have all witnessed so far being used by the copyright monopolists to try and “notbrems” the development of file sharing platforms and technology.

  9. […] have a sudden change of heart about it’s horrible, destructive monetary policies. Others have predicted, based upon sound math, that Bitcoin’s total market cap can get up to between $100,000 and […]

  10. […] this guy says the value of bitcoins is gonna go through the […]

  11. 10
    Datavetaren

    I did this analysis two weeks ago and transferred as much as I dared into Bitcoins (not all in, but good enough). However, Rick’s analysis is a little more accurate than mine as he thinks that only 25% of the Bitcoins will be used for transactions, whereas I roughly computed 100%. However, Rick uses the figure 6 million, which is hardly 25% as the number of Bitcoins is roughly 11 million and I don’t expect it to be much different year 2019. Therefore, 25% of 11 million is 2.75 million. World GDP is 70000 billion dollars, so 1% is 700 billion dollars, so the value of transaction based Bitcoin would be around $250000, assuming the dollar hasn’t crashed of course. 10% is x10 more, so around $2500000.

    I also believe this is going to be faster than 2019. Bitcoin is going viral and as soon as Wallstreet is doing serious investments it will be completely unstoppable. Politicians won’t then be able to shut it down, because that would be an even bigger disaster than Lehman Brothers.

    • 10.1

      This is an accurate observation. I took aim at 21M bitcoins in circulation to have some sort of end-horizon mindset, but once you add in a specific timeframe, the numbers change.

      However, we are still both talking about the same ballpark – it’s not $250, but $250,000. My point of this article was to get people thinking in terms of the right orders of magnitude.

      Cheers,
      Rick

      • 10.1.1
        Datavetaren

        Absolutely right. It really doesn’t matter; it’s all about rough estimates and orders of magnitude.

        It’s schocking how fast things are moving though. Waking up this morning and seeing $40 become $45. Fast rewind to 1994 where every Swedish news program started with “Det världsomspännande datornätet Internettt (with many t’s)” will soon be “Den världsomspännande Internettt-valutan Bitcoin”.

        5 more years and people will view this as something completely normal.

  12. 11
    Datavetaren

    BTW, the gamma ray burst happens when Facebook is providing Bitcoin wallets for everyone.

  13. 12

    I do believe in bitcoins too. But I think there is substantial uncertainty. I have some smaller investments in bitcoins. There are two main things that worry me:

    1) Due to a large fluctuations in traded value (hype/selloff/wash/rhinse/repeat) even with an upwards trend, it is extremely difficult for a business to accept bitcoin. Any quoted price for a product/service would be a floating value. And any business transaction would have to be converted to a less volatile currency immediately. Holding the bitcoins for a business which isn’t interested in speculation on them would be extremely risky.

    2) Bitcoins are based on classic cryptography. In that realm they have proven to be robust and sound. But this premise only holds as long as the core premises of classic cryptography hold true. Nobody yet knows when/if/how quantum computing would start to erode classic cryptography. But it does present a substantial, unquantifyable (no pun intended) risk to methods that tie their value to the principles of classic cryptography.

    • 12.1
      Pieter Kok

      If cryptography is your worry, don’t. We have properly working quantum cryptography right now (which is impervious to quantum computer attacks), while any useful quantum computer is at least a decade away. The reason quantum crypto is not used very much (apart from flagship projects) is that there is no real economic need for it yet.

  14. 13
    Klocky

    Rick is as usual up in the blue, his credibility when it comes to finance and economics is practically ZERO which “coincidentally” is how much Bitcoins will be worth in a not so distant future.

    • 13.1
      Alfy

      @Klocky: If you are going to assert that the price will drop to near zero, please give your analysis as Rick did for criticism. Baseless criticism is neither helpful or meaningful.

    • 13.2
      Scary Devil Monastery

      Well, Rick has apparently already made a killing by going all-in. Converting what he has invested two years ago into real cash today should make him a VERY wealthy man indeed.

      So what you are saying is that he isn’t really successful…because he’s been right for the last two years while the naysayers have not?

      Yea, your statement fails to make any kind of sense, mate.

      • 13.2.1
        Klocky

        I seriously doubt that Fakvinge went all in buying Bitcoins, guess that was just hype, but maybe he actually invested a couple of thousand crowns just before Bitcoin crashed and crash it will again after losing its hype and going out of fashion among the IT-heads.

    • 13.3
      Datavetaren

      The second half of your statement will be a self evident truth if you substitute the word “Bitcoin” with “Dollar” (or Euro).

      • 13.3.1
        Scary Devil Monastery

        Not so sure about the dollar. Even China will turn somersaults to help save that one.

        But the Euro took two VA-111’s midships when the ECB started running the printing presses warm in order to meet the promised “unlimited” loans they wanted to issue to countries agreeing to support the EMU.

        • Datavetaren

          Once Bitcoin has got momentum and captured 1% of world economy, it is just a matter of time before all other currencies collapse. They do because Bitcoin is a much more technological modern currency, so the old currencies will be very cumbersome to use in comparison. Being able to perform micro-payments at virtually no cost is precisely what many industries want. The potential is huge. Online magazines would be able to perform micro-payments when people click at links, etc.

          This is very analogous to what Internet itself was. Microsoft tried to build their own network (MSN), but realized that it is better to let entrepreneurs contribute with the back bone that everybody shares. Bitcoin is exactly the same. The Bitcoin network is divided into two categories; those who make transactions and those who verify transactions. Those who verify transactions get paid doing so (even after the 21 million Bitcoins have been generated). The cost of verifying transactions will be market value with the whole world as the competitive stage. Therefore, Bitcoin is the most equal and fair currency human kind has ever created. Once it has reached critical mass all other currencies will vaporize.

        • AED38

          @Datavetaren Ideally your argument is sound, however, when will this happen and will it be feasible with Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency?

          The biggest obstacle to all other currencies collapsing is government. People believe that $$$ have value, not out of free will, but because the most powerful government in the world says so. You need to pay your taxes in USD, not Bitcoins. My guess is that the Bitcoin will be adopted by other nations heavily but shunned in the US because it would be seen as a threat to the fed and big bankers. This might level the global economic playing field against us.

          Also if it never reaches so called “critical mass” it could just implode outright. It will be interesting how this pans out over the next 30 years.

    • 13.4
      harveyed

      And the “laws of economy” have been rewritten how many times the last 100-200 years to account for various technological progressions..? Quite many times. It would be totally naiive to believe that the current economic system will survive much longer. After all, the credibility for established financial institutions is not very big after the events since 2007…

  15. 14
    Tiago

    Interesting text. I can only hope you’re right. ;)

    You should not forget though that the price of a currency is strongly influenced by its velocity. The higher the velocity, the lower is the demand for money thus the lower its price. Bitcoin technical advantages allow for a much higher velocity. It would be easy, for instance, to pay employees on a daily basis. Money would move across borders much faster and so on.
    On the other hand, as a non-inflationary currency, Bitcoin does set a stronger incentive for people to save in it (“hoard”, if you will).

  16. […] The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000. – Falkving…. Tweet Author: admin Category: Economie, Nieuws Tag: $, banken, bit, bitcoins, blijheid, coins, dump, e, echte, Economie, NWO, overheid, schijt, steun, vrij, vrijheid, wij Leave a Comment or Cancel reply […]

  17. 15
    The bobmail troll

    Ok, time to sell every coin I own. You know when a bubble is about to crash when the taxi driver knows about it – Falkvinge is the taxi driver of bitcoin, the currency tanked just after he went ‘all in’.

    • 15.1

      With the current velocity in value climb, there’s almost certainly a correction coming. But isn’t your statistics a bit thin, going only on one data point?

      Besides, that post still stands – I went all in, and having made a 7x return on money in two years is still phenomenal by any measure, regardless of what happened in between.

      Cheers,
      Rick

    • 15.2
      Riffed

      Well, if you’re worried about the “taxi driver” problem, don’t. I work in finance, keep up with the latest technology, and aside from a couple of random mentions of bitcoins that I blew off as being the latest e-cash or Flooz reiteration, didn’t bother paying bitcoins a second look until a few weeks ago. None of my friends, all college-educated and tech savvy, even know what a bitcoin is, let alone want to use one.

      I think we’re in the 1990-1995 period of the Internet, where techies knew it was an extension of ARPAnet and thought an Internet-based BBS was pretty cool on their (and my) 9600-baud modems.

      This is not to say I think bitcoins will got to $100k+ based solely on how widely recognized they are – this will depend upon market demand. But I think it’s quite safe to say that well under 1% of the potential market (which is itself well under 1% of the total negotiable currency market) has yet to even notice bitcoins.

  18. […] príliš rád žonglovanie s číslami a už vôbec nie predpovedanie budúcnosti, ale za Falkvingovou logikou je isté […]

  19. 16

    We’re doing our part to make sure the Bitcoin economy continues to grow and become more widely known by those outside the base it has now.

    We launched Bitspend.net on Sunday, and we’re allowing anyone to purchase anything online – an dpay using their Bitcoins. We’re launching a ‘total anonymity package’ next week as well, which will allow you to once and for all make truly anonymous purchases with your Bitcoins from ANY online retailer!

    Your article is extremely well written, and we can only hope your views for the future of BTC are even remotely accurate :)

    • 16.1
      donjoe

      And we’re thankful to you for coming out with such a service. I can’t wait for it to become available in Europe, because ever since PayPal boycotted Wikileaks I’ve stopped all interactions with them and this has drastically limited my options on the international retail market (especially on eBay). I’d love to finally have a way to circumvent PayPal’s transaction market dominance and your service does seem to promise that, hopefully for the not-so-distant future.

  20. 17
    JJbegood

    What we are seeing is floods of money coming in from the Chinese market via MTGOX. As soon as MTGOX starts posting deposits onto their customers account which seems to start happening at 8am Japan time weekdays, the BTC price surges upward and tends to settle down about 9hrs late.. Weekends there is very little activity because there is no way for bank deposits to actually be posted to customer’s btc exchange a/c

  21. […] źródło: TrysteroBlog @ twitter.comPozostawiam do indywidualnej interpretacji. Mogę tylko wspomnieć, że Bitcoin zyskuje w stosunku do złota mniej niż w stosunku do USD i innych “fiat money” (pieniędzy papierowych opartych wyłącznie na zaufaniu). Może dlatego, że złoto trudniej wyprodukować niż USD.Niektórzy sugerują, że kurs BTC może w perspektywie miesięcy czy lat poszybować do 1000 dolarów czy więcej…falkvinge.net – target value for bitcoin […]

  22. 18
    ralph

    Your analysis makes perfect sense in terms of the numbers(percentage of transactional market) and constraints(limited number of bitcoins and increasing difficulty of mining).

    However, long before we reach 1000USD per coin I believe the US and other governments would step in., i.e., this would be viewed as a serious threat as it is not controlled by a central banking system.

    I am interested to see what will happen this year

    • 18.1
      Datavetaren

      I don’t think they will. It’s moving too fast. And Wall Street is already investing. Once you get to some critical mass then they don’t dare shutting it down (read Lehman Brothers). Second, if a lot of people are investing the voters will force politicians to keep it. It only takes a few countries not join the ban to keep Bitcoin a success, e.g I can imagine that Beppe Grillos voters in Italy would be happy with Bitcoin.

      • 18.1.1
        ralph

        Perhaps you are right. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens.

        At the very least I don’t think it’s a bubble at all, and it’s all been very interesting, and profitable. Since I made my investments the value has gone up by a factor of 6.

        I’m certainly not going to sell.

        • Also, should not be forgotten that it is censorship resistant by nature. No regulation or violence is strong enough to solve the math problem.

  23. 19
    Datavetaren

    @Falkvinge
    Is there any way we can influence Europarl? Like the flowers we gave after the ACTA vote. Perhaps handing out USB sticks with Bitcoin wallets containing a small amount of BTC?

  24. 20

    It’s been an amazing evolution during the last few months. If you had invested all your money on Bitcoin when it was worth $13 you’d have doubled your money in less than two months. What will 2013 bring to Bitcoin? If you still don’t use this virtual currency, start here now! Don’t miss the boat! – http://thebitcoinmaster.blogspot.com

  25. 21

    You got all wrong, the target value is

    $1 = 1 satoshi

  26. 22
    Gil

    There is an anonymous corporation called GBBG Bit Billions that is cashing in on the bitcoin craze and is set to disrupt multiple giant online corporations like Google, etc. Just click on my website for more info.

  27. […] The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000. Bitcoin’s value is at an all-time high again. Following the hype peak and crash in 2011, many seemed to have thought it was just another dotcom fluke. But bitcoin was much more than that, and it has returned with a vengeance – its market cap is now twice what it was in the 2011 peak, and it is nowhere near its potential, which is four orders of magnitude above today’s value. […]

  28. […] Leer artículo completo, en inglés /* bitcoin en español, Economía, futuro, mercado, opinión, precio ← ¡NameCheap acepta Bitcoin! /* […]

  29. 23
    Datavetaren

    In order to capture history for Sweden:

    http://picturepush.com/public/12357891

  30. 24
    Datavetaren

    In order to capture history for U.S.

    http://picturepush.com/public/12357946

  31. 25
    Arthur

    hehe, I just had an idea about bitcoin online shops…

    Let’s say you decide to sell iPhones or popular cell phones and tablets for bitcoins…
    since the value of bitcoins is going to steadily rise, you could intentionally undercut the price even more, and then by having those bitcoins rise in value later on, compensate for your lower price or even make lots more money on each sale (hypothetically) :D

    Of course, you’re gonna have to have a few € to spare, since you are basically speculating (but bitcoin is rising, without a doubt!)

  32. […] tror att det kommer att förändras med tiden. Någon brådska är heller inte nödvändig – Rick Falkvinge har förutspått att Bitcoin får sitt stora genombrott först […]

  33. 26
    utuxia

    Where are you guys buying bitcoins? I bought 5 at coinbase.com which looks to position itself as the “PayPal for bitcoin”. But, I wonder if I can get my bitcoins out of coinbase.com and deposit them somewhere else.

    I tried downloading the mac client, but after 2 weeks of download the block chain I gave up on it. It is the one thing keeping me from investing more money. If you have to have a computer science degree to use the currency, it will never catch on.

    • 26.1
      Toni

      If you have an older, low-spec computer and a slow internet connection (one or both of which are obviously your problem) you have no need for the full client and the entire blockchain.

      Use an internet client. They’re quite secure enough for small amounts, they don’t load the blockchain (you use the blockchain on their servers), and they’re instantly usable.

      Try blockchain.info, Electrum, or one of those. Hell, you already have a Coinbase account. That’s a wallet too. What’s wrong with that?

  34. 27
    ADMIR

    How legitimate is Mt.gox to purchase the coins ?

  35. 28

    By chance, did you review this infographic on Potential Bitcoin Prices?

    http://www.runtogold.com/images/potential-bitcoin-prices.jpg

  36. […] *The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000. – Falkving… […]

  37. […] tro på sin prognos för bitcoins långsiktiga värde står kvar och han meddelar att han har en “signifikant” investering i bitcoin igen. Han verkar dock ha lärt sig […]

  38. […] das ist erst der Anfang. Bitcoin-Experte Rick Falkvinge schätzt den potenziellen Marktwert auf 100.000 bis 1 Mio Euro pro Bitcoin. Bei einer solchen Wertsteigerung würde wohl die Dezimalstelle nach vorn […]

  39. […] das ist erst der Anfang. Bitcoin-Experte Rick Falkvinge schätzt den potenziellen Marktwert auf 100.000 bis 1 Mio. US-Dollar pro Bitcoin. Bei einer solchen Wertsteigerung würde wohl die Dezimalstelle nach vorn gerückt […]

  40. […] das ist erst der Anfang. Bitcoin-Experte Rick Falkvinge schätzt den potenziellen Marktwert auf 100.000 bis 1 Mio US-Dollar pro Bitcoin. Bei einer solchen Wertsteigerung würde wohl die Dezimalstelle nach vorn […]

  41. […] Falkvinge of the Swedish Pirate party reasoned along these lines, using long term scenarios where Bitcoin represents some part of national economy GDP.   Similarly, Max Kaiser conjectures […]

  42. 29

    There’s another draw to Bitcoin, how big do you think the global demand will be for a means of cryptographically hiding wealth away from the Government, or your ex wife.
    Looked at in those terms, even $1Million looks like a massive underestimate.
    Then of course there’s the reality that people will always be forgetting their password or dying without revealing their password, meaning that even when it reaches $1million, it will keep on going upwards.

  43. […] their wealth. And some people are even guessing that if Bitcoin achieves it's ultimate goals then it could go well into the thousands. Sure it's a lot of speculation and honestly I have no idea which way this thing will end up going […]

  44. […] going on about the future value of BTC, and how certain events could influence that. Last week I read an interesting article about that. But there is also a lot of speculation about a bubble about to burst. Indeed the recent rise in […]

  45. […] Bitcoin has consistently been appreciating in value.  More than likely you will earn back anything you paid in fees within the next few days of owning a bitcoin.  My most recent purchase was for $192 worth of bitcoin and at this time of publication has appreciated to $463 in a matter of two weeks.  When you buy a car off the lot after a purchase, it immediately drops in value.  There are not many purchases you can make today that will result in you having more money than you put into it.  If we help bitcoin thrive and survive, we could be heading for a $100,000+ bitcoin in the next six years. […]

  46. […] Bitcoin has consistently been appreciating in value.  More than likely you will earn back anything you paid in fees within the next few days of owning a bitcoin.  My most recent purchase was for $192 worth of bitcoin and at this time of publication has appreciated to $463 in a matter of two weeks.  When you buy a car off the lot after a purchase, it immediately drops in value.  There are not many purchases you can make today that will result in you having more money than you put into it.  If we help bitcoin thrive and survive, we could be heading for a $100,000+ bitcoin in the next six years. […]

  47. […] of the articles I’ve been reading has suggested that the currency should be valued at $100,000 or $1,000,000 but the first thing you need to know about Bitcoin is that it’s a […]

  48. 30
    anon

    >Furthermore, some people will undoubtedly invest in bitcoin and keep their portion of bitcoin away from the transactional pool, like all people tend to hoard money if they are able. This decreases the amount of bitcoin that must fulfill the market share, further driving up value for each individual bitcoin. As a rough estimate, let’s assume that only one in four bitcoins is actually used in transactions, and the rest are in some kind of savings or investment plans.

    I’m not sure that excluding bitcoins are being hoarded as an investment from a calculation of its stable value makes the most sense. Once it became clear that bitcoin had reached a truly steady price, all of those hoarders should cash out and move to some other investment.

  49. 31
    fragglestomper

    There is a huge flaw with bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals in that MANY bitcoins over the years will be lost due to memory failures on flash drives and smart phones being lost or damaged. Even once it is maxed out to 21 million coins, there will be an ever increasing percentage of lost or destroyed coins until there is zero liquidity. Then what? Each trade will have an enormous impact on the price. There should not be any cap on the amount of coins, only a cap on the rate that they are released.

    • 31.1
      Jack Mcslay

      That would defeat the purpose of the bitcoin that is to mimic the behavior of precious metals. Precious metals can’t be mined indefinitely, they eventually run out, and likewise, they may get lost and found only hundreds of years later. If it had no cap, people would just keep mining it, inflating the currency and making it worthless.

  50. […] af det første piratparti i Sverige, Rickard Falkvinge, lavede i marts en artikel netop det emne (http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1… ) . Han lavede den antagelse at en fjerdedel af alle de 21 millioner Bitcoins ville blive brugt til […]

  51. 32

    Bitcoin true value is in ability of people to use it to do commerce, transfers and trade,
    without government or any other control and corporative restrictions.

    It’s value when transferring between RL currencies will always fluctuate.

    USE coins to do your job, not to speculate on it’s relative price.

  52. 33
    Bitcoin

    Not sure if you are still replying to your article, but I was wondering if I can get some thoughts on the role of competition that plays into your prediction. What if Bitcoin is the MySpace or Internet Explore and some Facebook or Chrome comes along and makes major improvements on the whole Bitcoin concept.

    How would you factor this in?

    Please reply to my comment as I would love to here your response on this. Thanks!

  53. 34
    Pieter

    $1,000,000 for a bitcoin
    that would make bitcoin prices look strange
    just paying 0.000 001 for small things

  54. 35

    I’ve also invested, significantly, in Bitcoins. You Said nobody seems to be doing any kind of due diligence on calculating the future value of Bitcoins. But this and so much more is exactly what we’re start at Canonizer.com, an open survey system designed to measure both what the bleating herds believe, and also what the peer ranked crowd leading “currency experts” believe in comparison.

    http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/155

    Of course, the quality of the information and predictions are all based on how many of you participate in the survey. So please provide your opinion about what you think the vaalue of a Bitcoin will be, one year from now: Do you believe in the “Law of the Bitcoin” camp, or do you have some other opinion?

    http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

    Anyone interested in helping us integrate the contents of this article into the expert survey?

    Brent Allsop

  55. 36

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  56. 37

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  57. 38
    Paul

    I wish I’d read this months before…
    You’re a genius.

  58. 39
    Bjorn

    Reading this today, it’s nice to see mtgox price is at +1000USD :)

  59. 40

    Hello dear forum members .

    We Buy/Sell/Xchange some e-currencys .
    Here is list :

    Bitcoin
    Litecoin
    Perfect Money
    Skrill (moneybookers)
    Neteller
    Ukash
    Western union
    Okpay

    All are fast & easy, if u wanna buy something – sell something – or exchange your funds then contact with me via instant message service. About exchange & rates we can talk in…

    Skype : v.keerma
    Yahoo : thmG2rs

    Regads,

  60. […] 9) Swedish Pirate Party: “The total size of the transactional currency market is hard to estimate, but has been pegged at about $60 trillion (the amount of money in circulation worldwide). Seeing how this number is roughly on par with the world’s GDP, it is a reasonable enough number to be in the right ballpark. Based on my four earlier estimates (one, two, three, four), I think it is reasonable that bitcoin captures a 1% to 10% market share of this market. … This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low market cap and $1,000,000 at the high market cap.” (Rickard Falkvinge, March 6, 2013). Source […]

  61. […] on who you ask, the value of one Bitcoin is going to stabilize at $10. Or $1300. Or $400,000. Or $1,000,000. Or […]

  62. […] 9) Swedish Pirate Party: “The total size of the transactional currency market is hard to estimate, but has been pegged at about $60 trillion (the amount of money in circulation worldwide). Seeing how this number is roughly on par with the world’s GDP, it is a reasonable enough number to be in the right ballpark. Based on my four earlier estimates (one, two, three, four), I think it is reasonable that bitcoin captures a 1% to 10% market share of this market. … This leads us to a target market cap of 600 billion to 6 trillion USD, to be fulfilled by about 6 million bitcoin, which makes for easy calculations. That means that each bitcoin would be worth $100,000 at the low market cap and $1,000,000 at the high market cap.” (Rickard Falkvinge, March 6, 2013). Source […]

  63. […] from a guy that runs a company that depends on individuals getting and holding bitcoins. However, Casares is far from the first individual to make such a prediction, and there are fairly rational models that help single bitcoin valuations in the five to six […]

  64. 41

    Wishful thinking. Bitcoin will be gone in just a few years. It’s going up on pure speculations. Check http://www.bitcoinvalues.net and you’ll see the current price of a single bitcoin. That’s wayyy less than it was worth 2 months ago!

  65. […] близо до максималния потенциал. Bitcoin има потенциал за шестцифрена стойност за единица и смятам, че ще достигне близо до тези нива преди 2020 […]

  66. […] *Texto do Autor Rick Falkvinge, traduzido livremente para o português por Paulo Fiorio: http://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1…. No tips yet.Be the first to […]

  67. […] I was mistaken in my thinking and it cost me…BIG!  A simple $1000 would now be worth $100,000 if I invested 10 years ago, and $400,000 if I invested in the beginning.  I am not making that […]

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Rick is the founder of the first Pirate Party and is a political evangelist, traveling around Europe and the world to talk and write about ideas of a sensible information policy. He has a tech entrepreneur background and loves whisky.

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