Today, a poll was published in Germany that catapults Piratenpartei Berlin right on track to a smashing parliamentary election victory one month from now.
The poll gives the Piratenpartei 4.5% of the popular vote, with 5.0% needed for entry into Parliament on September 18. This would be the first time a Pirate Party had entered a national- or state-level Parliament. The Pirates have seats in the European Parliament and on many local councils across Europe, but not yet at the national or state level.
While four-and-a-half per cent isn’t five, the situation after the surprise numbers in the poll is what creates the “on final approach” scenario. Newspapers are now describing the Pirate Party as “the likely surprise of this election”. There are positive articles everywhere describing it as just short of a done deal, and I predict this will have an immense effect in the polls in the four remaining weeks.
“Pirate Party Has Tail Winds” — Deutschland Today
“Pirate Party On Course For Parliament” — Taz.de
This was the exact situation for the Piratpartiet in Sweden four weeks before the European Elections in 2009. The first poll for the European Elections came out four weeks ahead of the election with the Pirate Party fresh at 5%, just above the threshold. The Pirate Party was described as the likely sensation of the election night for four weeks straight, and that’s also what happened, with the final vote at 7.1%, polls climbing week by week.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that success is inevitable, but it does mean that the goal is in sight up ahead and that every activist’s extra mile now has more effect than ever. So while a lot of hard work remains, it is now 90% likely that pirates from Berlin will enter Parliament on September 18. For myself, I am booking plane tickets to Berlin and hope to be able to assist in the last critical days and, if possible, attend the election night dinner. I’ve been to one victory dinner before, and it’s really the memory of a lifetime.